UGM June 2019 Q48
0. Which one of the follow ing demand forecasting methods is NOT a survey method?
- Option : C
- Explanation : Survey methods are the most common and simple methods of estimating current demand and projecting future demand for a product.
Survey methods are generally used when the purpose is to make short-run forecast of demand for a product. Under survey methods,
the required information is collected through a survey of consumers/users. The survey seeks information of consumers’ future plan to buy
the product for which demand has to be forecast. Surveys are conducted by two methods.
(i) Consumer Survey Method—the Direct Consumer Survey, and
(ii) Opinion Poll Method
The choice of any of these methods depends on the status of the availability of primary data and time and money that firms are willing to spend on the survey. If primary data on demand for a product is not available in any form and money and time are not constraints, then direct consumer survey is the only option. But, in case some relevant information is already available with experts and time and money are the constraints, the firms may go for opinion poll of experts. The process of co nducting these k inds of surv eys is discussed below.
Consumer Survey Method—Direct Interview: Under this method, the potential consum ers of the product are directly interviewed to collect the required data on their demand for the product. Depending on purpose, time and cost, consumer surveys are conducted by three methods:
(a) Complete enumeration,
(b) Sample survey, and
(c) End-use survey method.
Opinion Poll Methods: The opinion poll methods aim at collecting opinions of those who are supposed to possess knowledge of the market, e.g., sales representatives, sales executives, professional marketing experts and consultants. The opinion poll methods include:
(a) Expert-opinion method,
(b) Delphi method, and
(c) Market studies and experiments.
